Emissions Gap Report Calls For Rapid Transformation Of Societies

In her introduction to this year's emissions gap report, Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), states bluntly:

“This year's report shows that unconditional NDCs [Nationally Determined Contributions] point to a temperature increase of 2.6°C by 2100, well above the targets of the Paris Agreement. Existing policies point to a temperature rise of 2.8°C, highlighting the gap between national commitments and efforts to meet them. In the best-case scenario, full compliance with the conditional NDCs and additional net-zero commitments would result in a temperature increase of 1.8°C. However, this scenario is currently not plausible.

There is a disconnect between where we are, what we promised, and where we need to go. As for the promises of individual countries, the NDCs, they are obviously not enough. "Neither current policies nor the NDC currently outline a credible 2030 path to net-zero national goals."

The headlines in this report are scary. The Guardian cites "Key Messages" and writes: Climate crisis. UN finds no "credible path to 1.5°C". This is a sentence that does not actually appear in the report and is taken out of context in the paragraph where it appears.

“With climate impacts intensifying, the 2022 emissions gap report shows that the world has not yet met the Paris climate targets and there is no credible path to 1.5 °C. Only an urgent transformation of the entire system can prevent the acceleration of climate catastrophe. The report examines how this transformation can be achieved through action in energy, industry, transport and construction, as well as food and financial systems.

It's such a strange phrase because the entire report is about charting a safe, albeit difficult, path. Again, we know what to do. what is missing is the will. Maybe that's why Inger Andersen says in a press release that it's so scary.

"This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature tells us all year long through deadly floods, hurricanes and wildfires. we need to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases and stop doing it fast. We had the opportunity to make incremental changes. , but those days are over. Only a fundamental transformation of our economies and societies can save us from an accelerating climate catastrophe.

One of the most interesting charts in the report shows who shines the most. Not surprisingly, they are the rich and their emissions are growing the fastest. I have never seen the 0.01% numbers and they are shocking.

"The poorest 50% of the population emits an average of 1.6 tons of CO2 equivalent. per capita or 12% of the global total, while the richest 1% of the population emits an average of 110 tons of ecu. per capita and make up 17% of the total. an average of 467 t CO2-eq. per capita) and 0.01% (2,531 t CO2 equivalent per capita), the fastest increase in personal carbon footprint since 1990”. Time to impose huge carbon taxes on private jets and second homes.

What does root transformation look like?

The report goes on to describe what this radical transformation looks like, breaking down the sources of emissions into five sectors of the global economy: Industry; Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Change (AFOLU); transportation; and buildings. The main question that needs to be answered immediately is how to avoid deadlock.

"Decisions made today could determine the trajectory of emissions for decades to come. For example, a building works on average for 80 years, a coal-fired power plant for 45 years and a cement factory for 40 years. Pipelines and connections have been addictive for decades. it can also correct behaviors and policies that reinforce existing systems. Actions that commit decades to a high-energy, high-carbon future must be avoided today, including abandoning new fossil fuel infrastructure for electricity and industrial, urban or regional automotive hubs. inefficient planning and new buildings. These actions do not always lead to immediate reductions in emissions, but are essential for the long-term transition.

And of course, we are still building highways, glass towers, suburbs and everything is closed.

Electricity remains the main source of energy-related CO2 (42%). It's amazing that people are still fighting power lines in Quebec, offshore wind turbines in the UK and the infrastructure we need for secure renewable energy when “it takes at least four changes to decarbonize energy; (1) sharp acceleration. share of zero-carbon electricity, (2) phasing out coal and gas generation, (3) grid adaptation/storage and demand management, and (4) ensuring reliable access to energy for all.

Here you have to electrify everything, reduce the demand for steel and concrete and get a cycle.

Electric cars alone will not save us. this is what they call a false dichotomy. The report also states that this is a problem of land use as well as equipment. we need to make our cities work without private cars.

“A significant shift to low-emission vehicles, including public transport, walking and cycling, as well as the electrification of transport modes are needed to adapt to the 2°C and well below 1.5°C trajectories. By 2030, the number of kilometers of public transport per 1000 inhabitants should be doubled and the number of quality cycle paths per 1000 inhabitants.

More McMansions!

“Energy consumption and space heating and cooling and water emissions are directly related to the total floor area covered by active temperature control. In addition, the more new floors are built, the more materials are needed and the higher the emissions into the atmosphere. The area used per person varies considerably both between countries and within a country. Minimizing the space needed to meet basic needs can have a major impact on emissions from this sector.

They also require insulation and a heat pump and gas seal.

The main source of emissions is food and agriculture, but there are many other problems associated with it. "Transforming food systems is essential not only to combat climate change and environmental degradation, but also to ensure healthy diets and food security for all." We need changes in demand, including sustainable and nutritious diets and reduced food waste.

In addition to all this, there must also be a restructuring of the financial system. "The transition from an economy heavily dependent on fossil fuels and unsustainable land use to a low-carbon economy is expected to require an investment of at least $4-6 trillion per year, which is a relatively small fraction (1.5 -2 percent).total financial assets under management, but in terms of significant additional annual resources (20-28%) that must be made available.

All right, convicts, we're on the right track.

It is clear that national commitments are not enough and each country must do better. It is also clear that if we do nothing or continue the way we are now, we will be in serious trouble. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is not kidding when he says: “The window for urgent action on climate change is closing fast. If countries do not dramatically strengthen their efforts to overcome the climate crisis, the world will face a global catastrophe.

But as climate journalist Amy Westervelt notes after the latest IPCC report (which also outlines a course for keeping temperatures below 1.5°C), it “made one thing very clear. the technologies and policies needed to respond adequately to climate change are in place. "And the only real obstacles are politics and fossil fuel interests."

Even the United Nations publishes "no right way" headlines when their newspaper says just that. Last words of Inger Andersen.

“I encourage every country and every community to carefully consider the solutions proposed in this report, incorporate them into their NDCs, and implement them. I call on all private sector actors to start rethinking their practices. I encourage every investor to invest in a netless world. The transformation begins now."

LIVE: UN report on emissions gap between Paris Agreement target and national commitments